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Good morning and welcome back!
After weak earnings last week, US futures and global stocks move higher this morning as we embark on a busy corporate earnings stretch. Below I offer an introduction to what to look for. Oh, and Postscript is back. Reader’s Warning: It’s about food.
But first we want to see what moves the markets.
- The mayor Asia indices are mixed with Hong Kong in afternoon trading Hang Seng above 2.7%.
- China’s economy grew 2.3% last year, helped by a sharp increase in the fourth quarter. China is now well on its way to overtake the United States as that largest economy in the world until 2026, capitalNaomi Xu Elegant Reports.
- The World Economic Forum has been published with its annual risk report and version 2021 makes reading difficult. What could be on tap in the coming years? A desolate youth precariat and a collapse of the state (together with the usual downfall over the climate crisis).
- The European stock exchanges were by and large higher in early trade with the Stoxx Europe 600 above 0.5% outdoors.
- COVID-19 has left a 600 billion euro hole On the balance sheet of European companies, a prominent trading partner warns, an argument for Brussels to prepare another economic stimulus package.
- Shares in Stellantis, the newly merged Fiat-Peugeot alliance, officially began to act yesterday in Paris and Milan under the ticker STLA. It almost closed 8th% higher on Monday. Auto stocks were unchanged on Tuesday following the data showed car sales fell through a record last year 24%.
- US futures I’ve been on the rise all morning and all three exchanges are about to start the week in the green.
- A look back: The Dow, S & P. and Nasdaq all ended lower last week that worst performance since October.
- Janet Yellen will testify today Before the Senate Finance Committee (The same group that will have a decisive vote on your candidacy for finance minister) and the big question will be: fair how much debt Can the US afford to get out of this economic crisis?
- On today’s earnings calendar we have: Bank of America, Halliburton and Netflixto name a few.
- gold is on, trade around $ 1,840 / ounce.
- The dollar is a little lower.
- Raw is a touch with Brent Trade around $ 55 / barrel.
- Bitcoin is plus 3.2% in the past 24 hours $ 37,100but trading has been choppy for the past 10 days.
This week and next make up the busiest stretch of the winning season. The last big banks are reporting this week, and next week we’re getting a wave of big tech results. Companies representing more than half of the S&P 500 market capitalization will report between January 25th and February 5th. Goldman Sachs calculated.
For much of 2020, corporations ravaged by COVID repeatedly threw in the towel and declined to provide a full outlook to investors. That will not be tolerated this year.
Here’s what else you should be looking for.
The comparison between Q4 2020 and Q4-2019 will be brutal. The S&P 500 is expected to drop 11% in EPS, according to Goldman (taking energy out of the equation, and it’s just bad – an 8% year-over-year EPS decrease). Line winners in the fields of healthcare, IT and materials.
Looking ahead, investors should focus on the full-year 2021 estimate and compare that to pre-pandemic performance for full-year 2019, advises Goldman. With this measure, the S&P will look a little better in the future. The medium-sized company in the S&P is expected to see an EPS growth rate of + 4% for 2019-21.
So a return to growth is imminent, which supports Goldman’s view that the benchmark S&P will climb to 4,300 by year-end.
We will know soon enough whether this is plausible.
A longtime Bull Sheet reader sent me a note over the weekend with a simple request. The subject line of the email was “Minestrone Soup”.
One of the most memorable “authentic” minestrone soup meals he has ever had was with a Roman pension Years ago. “Is there a chance,” he asked, “could you put a good recipe for it in your column?”
I knew this was going to be a postscript job. “Sure,” I replied.
I have to admit, I thought this was an easy task. That was before I fell into a rabbit hole with minestrone recipes. You see, Italian families live on minestrone soup from September to May. Come to eat, it’s a must primo. (As a reminder, no Italian food is complete without the Trinity: Primo-Secondo-Vino.)
I sat in the kitchen on Sunday afternoon and consulted two experts on the subject: the Cucina Italiana Cookbook and Xtina, my wife. The Italians have innumerable recipes for minestrone; The first cookbook I picked up contained more than two dozen. Ingredients depend on the time of year, what’s in the garden / local farmers market, and what goes best with the pasta of choice for the soup minestra.
As my wife explained, Italians have real awe of the minestrone as primo. Just as your finance manager would never advise you to just top up your portfolio with growth stocks, Italians would never think of serving Pastasciutta (or dry pasta) with every meal. You can also find a decent dish of Pastasciutta anywhere in Italy. A good minestrone is harder to come by.
This is how we make the minestrone at Casa Warner:
We start with three humble vegetables: the potato, Zucchins and carrot. We could replace it in the fall zuccaor sweet pumpkin. It could be in the fall offeraor Swiss chard.
The key, my wife insists, is to start with a beautiful, simple one Sofrito. Pour in some olive oil and diced onions (some suggest a bay leaf; we don’t) and let them cook to a nice sweet, aromatic base. Then, drop your diced vegetables into the pot adding some water or broth as you go. (We’re sticking to good old Roman tap water.) Oh, and don’t forget the salt. When the vegetables cook for a good hour, take one small hand blender and, zapTurn your floating, boiling vegetables into a thick broth. To make it stronger, use more potatoes at the beginning. (White beans work great too, but that takes a little more preparation.)
The next step: toss yours minestra Pasta, and serve with a dash of olive oil and a layer of Parmesan cheese.
Years ago, on a trip to Tuscany on a cold February weekend, I discovered the local dish, the Ribollita. We do it a couple of times every winter. It’s one of my favorites. As the name suggests, it gets better every time you reheat and scoop it into your bowl.
The Ribollita requires a much more complicated recipe as you will have to source pork bones to make the broth as well as a couple of different types of cabbage. If you are interested in this recipe please let me know.
I wish everyone a pleasant day. I’ll see you here tomorrow … Until then, there’s more news below.
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