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Why the 49ers move up to 3rd place to design a QB carries risks

SANTA CLARA, California. – If the story is a clue, it will San Francisco 49ers‘Going up on the NFL draft to take a quarterback with the No. 3 selection is not going to work out.

With a loaded squad they believe can get them back to competition next season, Niners coach Kyle Shanahan and General Manager John Lynch acted with significant capital draft – three picks for the first round and one picks for the third round — to the Miami Dolphins for one purpose: to find a long-term franchise quarterback who can win Super Bowls. Plural.

On the surface, the chances of this are not good. According to ESPN Stats & Information, 44 quarterbacks have been selected from the top three in the last 50 NFL drafts. Of those players, only two – Troy Aikman and Peyton Manning – have won a Super Bowl with the team that originally designed them.

In the past 15 years, five teams have traded for a top 3 selection and used that selection for a quarterback. None of these players have spent more than five seasons with the team that drafted them, despite four of them having made at least one playoff appearance prior to leaving.

None of this was lost to the 49ers when they made the trade.

“They study historically how things work, but we have great faith in this group of players that are up there and now we’re further improving and researching every single man we’re interested in in this place,” Lynch said on March 29, “And ultimately do our best to find the man who will be a big part of the future of this organization.”

While previous failures would suggest an uphill battle, this can find some consolation: The 49ers are about to do something that has never been done before.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the 25th overall was that a team drafted a quarterback just a season away from a Super Bowl appearance Green Bay Packers In 1967 Don Horn was selected. Barring one surprise setback or an even more surprising selection, that will all change on Thursday night when the Niners make their pick.

“Whoever draws you third could find yourself in a situation where there is a squad in San Francisco that can fight for a place in the playoffs,” said Matt Bowen, ESPN NFL analyst. “I think Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch believe they have a squad that can compete for a Super Bowl. If you swap future round one picks, you believe in that squad now. … but in terms of that Quarterback Don’t join a team that is lacking talent in key areas. You enter a team that the head coach and general manager believe is a quarterback who can’t win the Super Bowl. “

In fact, the Niners’ bold move is a product of their belief in the foundation they built and what that could mean for any rookie quarterback who joins the mix. Where many rookie quarterbacks find themselves in difficult situations, the 49ers don’t see their setup as anything remotely like rebuilding.

While San Francisco doesn’t have the same roster as they did when they beat it 13-3 and won the NFC Championship in 2019, many key factors remain. Linebacker Fred Warner, close end George Kittle, go left Trent Williams and defensive ending Nick Bosa are established as fundamental players in the long term.

In addition, Shanahan and offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel are still considered innovative offensive minds. Whoever designs the Niners will have kittle receivers too Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel and running backs Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr.. in place.

“I think the guys who go one and two are getting into difficult situations,” said J.T. O’Sullivan, former NFL quarterback and creator of Youtube’s “QB School” channel, said. “I think the 49ers aren’t that situation. I think it has the potential to be a pretty good situation for a young quarterback. … It’s an organization that normally a third choice can’t go into, which is this Franchise is right now. “

The Niners could also offer a rookie quarterback a chance to sit and study before the start. Carson Palmer is the only quarterback selected in the joint design era and not starting a game as a rookie. He’s waiting for the 2003 season behind Jon Kitna.

Though it could change if the Niners get a trade offer they like for the incumbent Jimmy Garoppolo, Lynch and Shanahan firmly believed he would be the starter to start around 2021 and a rookie would most likely start the season on the bench.

This could be beneficial for any quarterbacks considered by the 49ers. Zach WilsonThe 30 colleges start with BYU and Justin Fields’22 in Ohio State are most during Alabamas Mac Jones and North Dakota State Trey Lance Everyone has 17 on their résumé.

“History shows you that the correlation for success in the quarterback position has a high correlation between games started and playing experience, typically spanning more than 25 games,” said Todd McShay, senior NFL draft analyst at ESPN. “Well, it gives you an opportunity to finish that quarterback and maybe not have to start him in week one.”

One more thing history tells us: with the potential for five quarterbacks to end up in the top 15 for a second time in the collaborative design era, it is unlikely they will all succeed.

“All five of these guys are not going to be very good,” said Mel Kiper, senior NFL draft analyst at ESPN. “There will be a bankruptcy and there will be a disappointment. Well, good luck with your crystal ball to find out.”

If things go according to their plan, the 49ers don’t need a crystal ball. You already have what it takes to become the exception to the rule.

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